On paper this looks like really good news for us (I also think that it is fair that clubs are deducted points for administration, even though it is a nightmare for us fans – but that’s for another day).
Southampton have had ten points deducted after their parent company went into administration. Surely this helps us, no?
Well not quite.
I calculated that we need four points to reach guaranteed safety. The best that Norwich, in the last relegation place, can manage is 52. We are on 49, with a much worse goal difference to the Canaries. So either we beat one of Blackpool or Southampton by nine goals more than Norwich score in their next two games (putting us on 52 with a better goal difference) – or we go for a win and a draw (putting us on 53, just out of their reach).
However, Southampton’s punishment is variable. If they “stay up” (which they can do by getting six points from two games and one of Norwich, Barnsley or us not getting above 49 points) then they will have the points deduction applied straight away. Putting them on 40 points and leaving Norwich, Barnsley or us in the third relegation place.
But, if they go down this season “naturally” (ie they fail to get six points or two of Norwich, Barnsley or us get more than 50 points) then their ten point penalty is applied next season.
Read that again.
If they go down the penalty is held over till next season.
Which is something they will be desperate to avoid. And puts a whole new complexion on the final game of the season.
Hopefully, we will only need a point on the 3rd (or even better, Norwich will have done us a favour and slipped up).
But to Southampton, it’s no longer a six pointer – it’s a sixteen pointer – and they will be fighting that much harder to prevent next season being ruined as well.
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Can anyone think of a way to put Norwich out of business and get them relegated as well so we can all stop worrying about this season? Steal all of Delia Smith’s cookery books from Waterstones, perhaps?
“… it’s no longer a six pointer – it’s a sixteen pointer …”
Yes, possibly – they could already be down by then. And we could already be safe. And anyway, just because there’s more points at stake, doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily play any better. There’s loads at stake for us as well and we can’t both win.
I don’t want to wish ill upon others, but I hope that Saints fail to get maximum points this weekend, meaning that the final game is no longer a 16-pointer, and putting the whole issue to bed.
I sent an email to a Southampton-supporting friend of mine offering sympathy that the suits will walk away but the fans and club staff will be the ones to suffer. However, it is still the correct punishment.